RBC projects Canadian home sales will fall 3.6% to 453,200 in 2026, while the benchmark price index declines 2.3% to $794,200. Although resales have risen since April, inventory has levelled off and price declines have slowed, a clearer recovery is not expected until 2027, when sales are forecast to increase 6.7% to 483,600 and the benchmark price index rises 0.8% to $800,700. Up to 400,000 household formations may have been suppressed since 2019, creating pent-up demand that could support future momentum.
Recovery is expected to vary considerably by region, with British Columbia and Ontario projected to emerge slowly from prolonged downturns and record stronger sales gains next year. Condominiums will likely take longer to improve because of excess inventory in Vancouver and Toronto and weak investor interest. RBC expects the policy rate to remain at 2.25% through year-end before rising in 2027, while trade escalation, Middle East conflict, immigration cuts and persistent affordability issues could produce further setbacks.
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